For investors, 2022 will be looked back upon as a year goldilock investors were chomped by bears. In a rare feat, the good ol 60/40 bond/equity balanced “goldilocks” portfolio had one of its worst performances ever. The Australian equity component fared a little better than international counterparts thanks to strength in energy and commodity stocks. […]
For the time being, if you hadn’t noticed, the 0% interest rate world where money just fell from the sky is over. 14 years of whatever it takes, an era that forced investors to take on more and more risk to achieve some yield or capital gain via speculation is starting to blow back. At […]
Near on three weeks ago the first we witnessed the first major Central Bank policy “pivot” from the Bank of England as it changed its fiscal rhetoric from tightening to “accommodative”, within 24 hours as UK Pension Funds started panic selling Bonds to meet Margin Calls (very 2007). Global Markets were in freefall and desperately […]
“Democratic leaders will realize that they are only easily supported when there is a war that the people can rally behind. And so the democratic leaders will unnecessarily become involved in violent affairs, creating wars to distract the people. To ensure their power, the leaders will create laws to bolster their position. The rulers will impose […]
We hope investors enjoyed another week of “bad news is good news” for general equity markets. The IMF (so reliable) downgrades Global GDP growth as much as the narrative can take, real economic indicators in the US have fallen off a cliff, inflation runs rampant, rising rates choke growth (as intended) leading financial institutions to […]
It’s been sufficiently demonstrated over the last few weeks that markets don’t like Central Banks raising rates as economies move into recessionary conditions thanks to soaring prices and falling growth. Recession seems a base case for the US, Europe and Japan. Now Bloomberg Economics models indicate odds of a recession by 2023 have jumped to at least 72% At least Australia’s second […]
Been wondering what’s behind the share market strength of last week and early this week? Dead cat bounce short squeeze or new bull market? Time will tell. This rally began last week with horrible economic news out of the US and Europe, giving investors exactly what they needed, enough bad news to have some central […]
Nothing like a 1000 point fall on the US Dow on a Friday night to get the weekend party started. It’s been a surreal few weeks since the first Fed rate hike. Headwinds for markets abound, geopolitical uncertainty moving closer to a WW3 situation, rampant inflation, rising rates, over inflated asset prices everywhere and both […]
The financial and geopolitical happenings of the last two weeks are enormously important to our current financial system and misunderstood by many investors but for a few astute analysts. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, corresponding Western sanctions and attempted seizure of Russian FX reserves are nothing short of a monetary earthquake. The last comparable event […]
Happy New Year to all. As we welcome in 2022, from an investment perspective, let’s recognise 2021 for what it was for financial markets. Peak speculation. Fuelled by the largest money creation experiment in modern economic history, speculative excesses were not limited to, Alt Coins with crazy names, Bit Coins, NFT Tokens/Art, Cathy Wood/Tesla (same), record SPAC […]
Readers of these pages will surely know that Hubble Bubble Toil and Trouble was the chant of the witches in Shakespeare’s, The Tragedy of Macbeth, as they tossed their horrible artefacts into a boiling cauldron, often coming up with varying predictions, such as, “he shall be king”. The lasting insight of Macbeth is the tale […]
Recent mainstream media revelations of a more permanent type of temporary inflation are now being added to the reality of falling global GDP growth, leaving investors scratching their head as they reach for news clippings from the 1970’s for anything similar. The word used to describe this condition is not one unfamiliar to readers of […]
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