Though mainstream media may be lacking the will to join the economic dots around the Covid-19, we don’t feel the same constraints. Remember, no real financial reform on the back of the last “GFC” always meant the next one was going to be exponentially worse. But before we go on, let’s acknowledge the “holy grail” […]
As we’ve mentioned many times since the Repocalypse of September 2019, the Great Financial Bubble is, one day, going to pop. Since our last note, we’ve been grappling with sharing the very complicated “pointy end” of systemic weakness, in an over-leveraged, derivative laden, fractional reserve financial system of minimal collateral. Like, Corporate Financial Clearing house […]
Well, welcome to a new decade! What a start, no shortage of market moving news to distract the best laid holiday plans. So far, Australia begins to count the cost of fire disasters as the Middle East (ME) looked like firing up and, this week, we’ve had, what seems like, the 12th US/China trade deal in […]
As big as the win last week was for “Brexit”, as small as the “huge” Trump trade deal is, no news of the last week *Trumps* the gargantuan US Fed promise of 500BILLION to a frozen short term REPO money market over the next few weeks, just to keep the engine running and stock markets […]
Welcome to a new economic week. Last week we were forced to carefully reconsider, not just the continuance of Australian rate (down) trends, as demonstrated in the charts below but also the emergence of “the word”, inflation. What if rates were to fall to 0.50% and the cost of living went up by 5% in […]
Before we start with some commentary around the IMF downgrade to Australian GDP last week, let’s deal with something equally as meaningful to investors. In our last note, we tried to explain the US fed’s solution to a frozen short term lending market, to send fresh money, out of thin air, into said market. And […]
Well, for those waiting for a “tell” of stress in monetary plumbing issues, there is nothing like a blink by major banks. Like “primary dealers” not wanting to fund each other’s short term needs. This actually happened last week and continues through this week, so far. It’s a difficult story to simplify so please excuse […]
Last weekend, in Europe, current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a reminder of 2008 (back when “the bank” Bernanke told us that subprime was “contained”) referred to current chances of global recession as “contained”. Contained to where? Planet Earth?? This almost guarantees global a global recession is already under way. What a menagerie of over-educated […]
It’s fair to say that last weekend’s POTUS Tweetfest was unhelpful to a rapidly deteriorating Global Economy. For those who missed it, here’s a summary below, courtesy of Zerohedge: “Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech was supposed to be the most important event of an otherwise sleepy, August day, after which traders could quietly exit for […]
To some, the main event of the new Australian Financial Year was the RBA’s continued commitment to 0% interest rates for borrowers and -% for depositors. We agree this is important. Before we get to commentary around Aussie rates we’d like to make sure you didn’t miss the move of the Systemically important Global behemoth, […]
Confirmation over the last six months of central bank commitment to solving a debt and credit crisis with more of the same is really starting to take effect. It’s truly amazing, that with the prospect of slowing global economic growth and recession looming, Central bank buildings around the world, full of PhD’s, are nothing more than a […]
It’s taken this long to accept the reality of the recent Australian Election result. And with the election “euphoria” rally officially over we can get back to considering some of the real economic issues facing Australian investors right now. But before we get to the Aussie position, it’s important to reveal some global context. For […]
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