During periods of pre-election farce it can be easy for investors to increase “domestic” bias when considering asset allocation, so we’ll do our best to stay “global” in this note, as a reminder of the effect international markets have on Australian investors. After a horrible final quarter of 2018 for financial markets Global Central Banks […]
In the space of 6 weeks, the US Fed has gone from steady as she goes, 3 rate hikes to go in 2019, to considering policies so extreme that they weren’t used in the greatest financial crisis of the last 80 years. 6 weeks!! Shredding all remaining market credibility, in our irrelevant opinion. Peter Schiff […]
Nothing lifts the animal spirits of markets quite like the smell of fresh rounds of central money printing, to go with the central banks that never stopped. The US Fed’s reversal in late January, (combined with intense early January jawboning from US Treasury Secretary and President to buy all the things) was sudden, and stunned […]
Best of the festive season to all, we’re hoping it’s a safe one for you. Before we get into the content of our last note for the year, we’d like to present the following chart from the irrepressible team at visualcapitalist.com Just food for thought, leading into 2019.
The old line, “recession doesn’t kick in until after the last rate rise” certainly doesn’t look like it will apply to Australia this time round. Indigestion from too much debt makes a rate rise in Australia so remote, it would take some type of unexpected hyperinflation to trigger. The US Fed reserve’s determination to continue […]
Hell of a couple of weeks. And what is with gold going up with the USD? Haven’t seen that for a few years. Last week, probably worst for equities since Lehman Fukushima. So, after 9 years of “mission accomplished”, after almost a decade of negative and 0% interest rates in the OECD, designed only to hold the […]
A stable paper monetary environment is something most of us genuinely hope for. Unfortunately, both recent and long term history demonstrates such stability is rare. Generally, change comes about when, “something”, some, “out of the box” (for those not paying attention) “black swan event” swoops down and raids on the parade. Bugger, they say, how did that […]
Before we get going today, we thought we’d just share this snippet of US equity market commentary over the weekend from Sovereign Man’s, Simon Black. • “For example, a full 60% of corporate debt issued by companies in the Russell 2000 (US small company index) is rated as JUNK.• How is this possible, an all-time […]
Market open this morning doesn’t seem to reflect the promise of endless 3% growth in the US minus the inflation. The perfect scenario, we were told sold over the weekend by former Goldman Investment Banker, Film Producer and current US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin. He (net wealth $300m) certainly doesn’t seem concerned with endless trillion […]
Well, we can finally see where rising interest rates and inflation have taken their toll – emerging markets. Down 20% since mid May. We can guess there’s probably some worried US Fed bankers right now. Worried that this turmoil will reach US equity market shores very soon. So, it seems the only point for debate […]
How quickly the news cycles turn… This time last week, geopolitical instability in the Middle East was of primary concern. Now, after another US/UK/France (no Germany) “Mission accomplished” we move to the next big “thing”, and we’re still no closer to piping gas through Syria, from Qatar, to Europe. Despite the US trade and hot […]
Last week we read the following piece from Sovereign Man’s Simon Black, with the context of rising rates in mind and thought it worth sharing. Remember, the US 10 year treasury rate has already doubled from 1.67$ to 2.97% in the last 18 months. Think about a million dollar mortgage going from 4.5% to almost […]
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